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The Changing Landscape of Home Ownership: Why Housing Defies Traditional Market Rules
The real estate market continues to break records, but not in ways that favor first-time buyers. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the average age of first-time home-buyers has climbed to 38, up from last year’s record-high of 35. Even more striking, the average age for all home-buyers has skyrocketed to 61, a dramatic increase from last year’s then-record of 48.
Why Housing is Recession-Proof
The current housing market defies conventional economic wisdom, particularly when it comes to inflation and supply-demand dynamics. To understand why, we need to look at recent history and some unique characteristics of housing as an asset class.
The Low-Rate Legacy
During the era of historically low interest rates (2-3%), we witnessed a dramatic increase in purchasing power. As Milton Friedman noted, when money flows freely in circulation, initial enthusiasm is high. However, this monetary expansion inevitably leads to inflation, with prices and costs eventually catching up – exactly what we’re seeing today.
The Supply-Demand Paradox
While most goods and services eventually stabilize in price following inflationary periods (think food, appliances, travel, or gas), housing follows a different pattern. Why? The answer lies in two crucial factors:
- Essential Nature: Unlike discretionary purchases, housing is a basic necessity. We can cut back on driving, travel, or new shoes, but we all need a place to live.
- Owner Control: Housing is unique in that its supply is largely controlled by the general public. Homeowners aren’t forced to sell, and many choose not to when market conditions aren’t favorable, keeping inventory low and prices high.
The Policy Dilemma
Policymakers face two main options to address the housing crisis:
- Increase Housing Supply: While both political candidates advocate for building more homes, this approach risks reducing existing home values. Given that home equity is a major source of wealth for many Americans, any significant decline could trigger negative media coverage and accusations of economic mismanagement.
- Focus on Rental Market: The alternative is to protect home equity while expanding apartment construction to reduce rental costs – a trend we’re currently seeing.
Strategy for Real Estate Professionals
For those working in real estate and lending, success in today’s market requires focusing on where the opportunity lies – specifically, the 40-50 age demographic. This group is benefiting from the largest wealth transfer in human history as Baby Boomer parents transition to assisted living or pass away.
Keys to Success in Today’s Market
- Leverage Your Phone: Your phone remains the most reliable tool for business development, yet it’s often underutilized. Make it your primary instrument for connecting with clients and prospects.
- Help Others: Success in real estate is built on a simple formula:
- Help leads to activity
- Activity creates engagement
- Engagement generates opportunities
- Take Initiative: Don’t let perfectionism paralyze you. As the saying goes, “great is the enemy of good.” Even an imperfect action is better than inaction. The opposite of initiative – passivity, reluctance, and inactivity – can be fatal to your business.
Conclusion
While the housing market may seem daunting, understanding its unique dynamics and focusing on the right demographic can lead to success. The key is to remain active, helpful, and consistently take initiative, even when the path forward isn’t entirely clear.
