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Demanding Better Transportation
As the year 2036 approaches, anticipation builds for the release of the 11th-grade social studies book. Among the chapters, one stands out in particular: Chapter 1, which delves into the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. While it is expected to provide a retrospective on the pandemic’s fallout, there will likely be no mention of the policies enacted by our elected officials that exacerbated the situation. However, for now, let us focus on one area of fallout that will significantly impact real estate and lending: mass transportation.
Examining the growth and subsequent decline of Seattle’s South Lake Union Trolley provides a glimpse into the larger picture. Before the pandemic, the trolley experienced remarkable expansion, but its ridership plummeted during the pandemic and has yet to recover. This decline is not limited to a single transit system; when considering the five largest public transit systems in the country, none have returned to pre-pandemic levels. In fact, as of June 2023, American public transit systems, including all transit rail systems, operate at only 70% of their pre-pandemic capacity.
Safety
Several factors contribute to the current state of public transportation. Public safety and health concerns prompted a shift towards private cars or alternative modes of transportation like bike shares. Furthermore, many transit operators retired or shifted careers during the pandemic, leading to degraded services and increased delays. Additionally, the adoption of work-from-home measures eliminated the need for daily commutes from suburbs and exurbs to city centers.
While these reasons are widely acknowledged, they only present a partial truth. One crucial reality being brushed under the carpet is the increase in crime. The changing landscape has instilled fear in people, eroding their trust in public transportation. This sentiment is supported by the numbers, with people perceiving little to no retribution for criminal activity. The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) serves as a prime example, where crime rates have risen significantly, causing ridership to decline. A recent BART survey revealed that 45% of respondents choose not to ride due to concerns about safety, while only 17% perceive BART as safe.
The effect on real estate
The decline in public transportation usage has significant implications for real estate, especially in areas with expensive property values. Property values thrive in proximity to public transportation options, according to a joint study conducted by the American Public Transportation Association (APTA) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The study found that residential and commercial properties within a half-mile of transit options, such as heavy rail, light rail, commuter rail, and bus rapid transit, had a median sale price 4%-24% higher than those farther away.
Public transportation plays a vital role in suburban and suburban communities by stimulating economic activity. The APTA and NAR study also revealed that living near transit options significantly reduces transportation costs. On average, households in transit-oriented areas save between $2,500 and $4,400 annually, serving as an inflation buster.
Demand improvement
To address the decline in public transportation and its impact on real estate, it is crucial to demand improvements and investment in great public transportation systems. This requires electing officials who prioritize public transportation and can ensure adequate security measures, creating a safe environment for commuters. As industry professionals, real estate agents have the power to influence public opinion and advocate for better transportation infrastructure. By uniting and communicating a strong message, they can make public transportation a significant talking point among their millions of constituents.
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a severe decline in public transportation ridership, impacting real estate values and transportation costs. While safety concerns, degraded services, and remote work policies contributed to this decline, the rise in crime and public perception of insecurity have also played a significant role. However, recognizing the importance of public transportation for communities and housing, it is essential to demand improved transit systems and increased security measures. By prioritizing these issues during elections and fostering a united front among real estate agents, we can pave the way for a future with excellent public transportation options.
