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As we approach 2025, analyzing current delinquency trends across different debt categories reveals both encouraging signs and potential warning flags for the economy. Let’s break down what the data is telling us.
The dramatic drop in student loan delinquencies might appear promising at first glance. However, this decline is artificial – a direct result of the COVID-era national forbearance program. This metric currently offers little insight into actual market conditions.
Two key indicators suggest stability in the housing sector:
Auto loan delinquencies have reached levels comparable to the 2008 financial crisis and continue to trend upward. This could be our “canary in the coal mine” pointing toward an impending recession.
Several alarming factors converge here:
The combination of rising auto loan defaults and growing credit card delinquencies mirrors patterns seen before the 2008 crisis. While the housing market appears stable, these consumer debt indicators suggest potential economic turbulence ahead.
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